After the winter, the northern region once again facing the haze of this long-standing problem. As of early December, including Central China, North China, East China, most of the region, including long-term air pollution index in the severe level, which led to environmental policies around the early baked, some key cities is issued "the most stringent anti-haze." Stricter from the environmental policy, tightening of coal supply in two areas, urea prices are blocked encounter.
Environmental policy to curb demand release
Since December, the announcement and focus of environmental protection policy focus on Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi and Shaanxi, Hubei and other peripheral radiation areas. Emission reduction measures for industrial pollution include chemical companies to limit production and other production, as far as possible to reduce sulfur dioxide, smoke (dust) dust, nitrogen oxides and other emissions. In this case,
Anti-haze policy will be limited to the chemical industry to prohibit the production of equipment included, as the major polluters to bear the brunt of fertilizer companies. The industry have said that urea enterprises have maintained a low operating rate, such as continuing to cut production at the end of next year or next spring urea market supply pressure is difficult to estimate. However, it is understood that for fertilizer companies, "limited production order" is not only for the urea business, but also related to downstream industries such as compound fertilizer and plastic sheet, short-term urea prices will slow down. In this case,
I December 5 connection Hebei, Henan, urea production enterprises and their downstream businesses understand that the two have been compound fertilizer, bb fertilizer, rubber factory for environmental inspection, has led to a substantial reduction in demand for urea industry. The two provinces of urea slow-moving situation, some of the hands of high-priced urea dealers have sold the phenomenon. Hebei urea market wholesale price and the factory has been upside down; Henan urea price fell to 1360 ~ 1370 yuan (t price, the same below), has been significantly lower than the domestic offer. In this case,
The above situation or will appear in other key anti-haze areas, which should appear in mid-December to early January urea raw material procurement market, or because of environmental policy interference and missed start. Lack of industrial demand support, combined with agricultural light reserves of fertilizer delayed, short-term market prices of urea hard to improve, the market outlook will be the industry's bearish.
Coal prices cut supply tight
The fourth quarter of the domestic price of urea rose from coal prices, the recent price began to fall in the same coal. Coal as the main raw material for urea production, accounting for the cost of urea constitutes more than 60%. In mid-August to early November, the domestic anthracite rose about 500 yuan, triggering urea prices rose, the main producing areas of urea factory price was exceeded 1,500 yuan. Zaonai did not last long, coal prices or missed the market, the policy soon suppress the onset. First, the large state-owned coal prices underpricing, followed by dozens of coal mines to meet the requirements of heavy volume, then there is to adjust the railway capacity, increase coal transport trips. After a series of policy control, coal prices stopped falling rapidly, local decline of more than 100 yuan. This is the enterprise for the urea "double-edged sword", the cost reduction is a good thing for the production, but the downstream manufacturers began to resist high prices of urea. December 5, the actual ex-factory price of the main producing areas of urea is only 1400 ~ 1420 yuan, the individual outside the price or even less than 1380 yuan. Urea market support for the loss of the cost of bad can be expected to use "panic" to describe. In this case,
According to the author, coal prices fall is not false, but the supply of urea is not excessive, and even some tight. At the end of the year, most of the domestic coal mining plan completed the task, in order to ensure safe production targets, coal production situation is more common. For urea enterprises, the ability to enjoy low-cost coal temporarily not to mention, can meet the production needs but also to make a question mark. Therefore, the cost of coal on urea support, has changed from rising prices for tight supply.
Urea prices remained slightly volatile
Domestic urea short-term by the impact of environmental policies, downstream demand as a whole bearish, lost in mid-December should appear in a round of fertilizer raw material procurement market. As the overall operating rate of urea continued to be low, coupled with limited environmental protection policies, market supply will not be a temporary surplus situation, it is limited to the promotion of urea. In this case,
In addition, although the domestic coal prices were suppressed, but the cost of urea still in support. The current operating rate of urea and the downstream market inventory showed a "double low" situation, the same situation, the first quarter of next year, domestic urea supply and demand is clearly tight. Part of the agricultural companies or in the urea after a moderate light storage price. In this case,
Therefore, the impact of environmental policies, the demand for urea no support prices; from the urea cost and operating rate analysis, the price decline is limited. In other words, in December the domestic urea market or will maintain the slight price fluctuations in the weak trend. (Yang Luyi)
Domestic fertilizer market
Urea: the market stabilized
Today, Northeast, Northwest urea market fluctuations in space is limited. Northeast small particles in the mainstream of factory prices in the 1490-1520 yuan / ton, large particles sent to the province 1600-1640 yuan / ton. Inner Mongolia, the actual mainstream of small and medium particles factory 1200 yuan / ton, the actual sales of large particles 1280-1300 yuan / ton, part of Sinotrans 1350 yuan / ton. The price of small particles factory in Shaanxi Province 1300-1500 yuan / ton, outbound offer 1403 yuan / ton; Gansu parking enterprises plan to resume production in the near future, now no goods can be sold, sources continue to arrive in Ningxia, arrival 1520 yuan / ton ; Xinjiang small particles to maintain the mainstream factory price of 950-1000 yuan / ton. In this case,
Diammonium: increased in advance
64% of diammonium factory price of 2000-2200 yuan / ton, enterprise pricing is relatively confusing, the vast majority of enterprises suspended orders. Hubei 64% diammonium factory reported 2100-2200 yuan / ton, orders have been filled in December, the current collection, shipping tight. Yunnan-Guizhou region 64% diammonium factory reported 2000-2200 yuan / ton, some companies have suspended quotes, control orders. 64% diammonium to the station price of 2200-2300 yuan / ton; Xinjiang 64% diammonium arrived in the station price of 2350 yuan / ton; Xinjiang market, the market price of 64% diammonium to the station price of 2250-2400 yuan / Ton. In this case,
Potassium chloride: the market temporarily stable
Potassium chloride market, the overall operation of transient stability, the new price gradually into the digestion stage. Port potash large traders intends to control the supply, the spot price is still high. 62% Russian white potassium mainstream offer 2,000 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price of 1980 yuan / ton, large single or old customers getting goods or slightly lower prices. Northeast Port potash inventories are low, the new supply to the ship after another to add. According to businessmen revealed that the port will have 400,000 tons of potash fertilizer arrived in Hong Kong, most of which supply has been pre-sale. Domestic potash fertilizer, the East West transport capacity is poor, a large number of sources continue to stay in the local. Salt Lake Group, 60% of the mainstream of potassium chloride station 1920 yuan / ton, small factories 57% potassium chloride station 1650-1700 yuan / ton, the volume can be discussed; orders cash difficulties. In this case,
Compound fertilizer: continued weakness
Compound fertilizer market shipments did not improve, only the Northeast, Jiangxi market take the goods can still be. 45% S (15-15-15) of the main factory price of 1950 yuan / ton; Hubei part of the manufacturers 45% S (15-15-15) tentative ex-factory price of 1950 yuan / ton; Shandong 45% S (15-15-15) the latest ex-factory price 1900-2150 yuan / ton; Jiangsu in some areas 45% CL (15-15-15) factory price of 1760 yuan / ton, 45% S (15-15-15) factory price 1950-2050 yuan / ton.
international News
SQM third-quarter net income increased 75%
Chile's SQM has reported net income of $ 55.8 million in the third quarter, up 75% from the same period in 2015. Revenue growth was mainly due to lithium sales and prices are more than expected, potash income has increased. In this case,
The company said third-quarter revenue earned SQM's first nine months of net income to $ 197.4 million, up from $ 168.6 million in the same period last year. In this case,
The company's third-quarter revenue of potassium chloride and potassium sulphate rose 0.9 percent to $ 114.4 million, compared with $ 296.1 million in the first three quarters, down from $ 333.8 million in the first three quarters of 2015. In this case,
In the third quarter, the average price of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate fell 26% year on year, t price dropped to 247 US dollars, but sales increased by more than 27%. The company expects 2016 full-year sales will be more than 20% increase in 2015. In this case,
SQM expects 2016, the total global demand for potash fertilizer is about 60 million tons.
